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Temporary Cooldown, but Above Average temps return soon enough, next week

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As of this posting, a record 8 day stretch of 80+ degree high temps to begin September has been set. After a cold front crosses the region, temps will remain a bit above the average high of 74 on Thursday and Friday, and then drop a few degrees below average Saturday-Monday.  There is still considerable uncertainty as of this Tuesday (September 8) night for any shower coverage and timing this upcoming weekend. Some models are more pessimistic for Saturday, with more sparse activity on Sunday. In any case, this coming weekend will not be similar to the just passed Labor Day holiday weekend. After temps remain below average on Monday, extended range computer guidance suggests readings recovering several degrees next Tuesday and then going more noticeably above average as next week progresses. In all, the upper air pattern suggests above average temps to dominate much (but not all) of the time well into September. There is some chance for more widespread shower activity from time to time, but overall tendencies may end up leaving us with below average precipitation during the coming 14-16 day period.

It’s still too soon to call this a “Strong El Nino” due to lack of duration. However, the ongoing conditions which have persisted for many weeks would be classified as Strong, with more models than not forecasting a Strong El Nino this autumn into early winter, and some degree of El Nino conditions persisting into at least early spring next year. A Strong El Nino is frequently associated with warmer than average temperatures in our part of the country during late autumn and winter. However, no 2 El Ninos are identical, and other variable factors can limit this effect. For example, the winter of 1965-66 featured a Strong El Nino but the stronger warming usually associated with that phenomenon did not materialize. This will be our first truly Strong El Nino since the historically strong event of 1997-98. At this point, I would estimate chances for a milder than average winter to be better than 50% in our region (and across much of the northern US), but this is far from conclusive. As for snowfall, the correlation is less clear, particularly for later in the winter when el nino will begin to drop back from its peak intensity. During the last Strong El Nino, Buffalo received about 75″ of snow for that winter, which is close to 20″ below average. Bottom line: the correlation between a Strong El Nino and our cold season weather is stronger for temperatures than it is for snowfall.


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